Chapter 7 Criticality in epidemiology
نویسندگان
چکیده
For a long time criticality has been considered in epidemiological models. We review the body of theory developed over the last twenty five years for the simplest models. It is at first glance difficult to imagine that an epidemiological system operates at a very fine tuned critical state as opposed to any other parameter region. However, the advent of self-organized criticality has given hints in how to interpret large fluctuations observed in many natural systems including epidemiological systems. We show some scenarios where criticality has been observed (e.g., measles under vaccination) and where evolution towards a critical state can explain fluctuations (e.g., meningococcal disease.)
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